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What positioning means
Two public readings Oyticker shows next to the prices: the positions reported to the US futures regulator every week, and the rates the central banks set. What they are, who publishes them, and what they are not.
The Commitments of Traders
On the US futures exchanges (CME, CBOT, NYMEX, COMEX), every large holder of contracts must report its positions to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the regulator. Each Friday at 15:30 Eastern the CFTC publishes the totals as of the Tuesday, market by market, grouped by the kind of holder:
- Funds: the leveraged funds in the financial report (currencies, equity indices, Treasuries, Bitcoin) and the managed money in the commodities report (metals, energy). Hedge funds, CTAs, asset managers trading for a return. They take a view.
- Commercials: the dealers and intermediaries in the financial report; the producers, merchants, processors and swap dealers in the commodities report. An airline buying oil forward, a mine selling its gold ahead, an exporter covering its currency. They use the market to hedge, not to bet.
- Small traders: the positions too small to be reported one by one.
For each group the report gives the contracts held long, the contracts held short, and so the net: long minus short. A net long of 120,000 contracts on the euro means the funds hold 120,000 more contracts betting on a stronger euro than on a weaker one.
How Oyticker shows it
- Funds, net
- This week’s net position, and the week change against the report before.
- 3-year range
- Where this week’s figure sits between the lowest and the highest net of the last three years, with its percentile. A 97th percentile means the funds have rarely been this long over three years; a 3rd means rarely this short.
- Commercials, small traders
- Their net positions, which usually sit on the other side of the funds.
- Open interest
- Every contract open in the market, whoever holds it.
- History
- On a market’s page, the funds’ net week by week over two years, for members.
The futures are on the currency itself: the yen contract is yen against dollars, so net long the yen is net short USD/JPY. The page says so where it applies.
What it is, and what it is not
It is a fact about who held what on a Tuesday, three days before it is published. It is not a forecast. Positions at an extreme tell you that one side of the market is crowded, nothing more; crowded markets have kept going for months, and turned the next week. Oyticker shows the figure and its place in three years of figures, and leaves the reading to you.
The policy rates
Each central bank sets a main rate for the money it lends to, or takes from, the banks of its area: the Federal Reserve’s fed funds target, the European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate, the Bank of England’s Bank Rate, and so on. Oyticker shows the rate in force, the last change with its date and size in basis points, the next scheduled decision when the Calendar lists it, and the seven curves on one chart. The figures come from the banks themselves, gathered by the Bank for International Settlements.
What is followed
Markets: Euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, US 10-year note, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, WTI crude, Copper.
Banks: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia.
Sources: the CFTC’s public reporting of the Commitments of Traders (futures only); the BIS’s central bank policy rates. Oyticker is not investment advice: nothing here tells you to buy or sell.