SNB holds policy rate at 0% amid rising energy-driven inflation; medium-term pressures contained
The Swiss National Bank maintained its policy rate at 0% on 24 September 2026, citing appropriate monetary conditions despite inflation rising to 0.8% in August, primarily from energy prices. Medium-term inflationary pressure remains modest, with the SNB forecasting inflation to peak in Q4 2026 before declining through 2027.
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What happened
SNB left the policy rate unchanged at 0% and the sight-deposit discount at 0.25 percentage points. Inflation rose from 0.6% (May) to 0.8% (August), driven by goods inflation and higher oil-product prices. The SNB's conditional inflation forecast for 2026–2028 averages 0.7%–0.8% annually, within the price-stability range. Global growth exceeded expectations in Q2; euro-area and US rates were raised. Swiss GDP grew exceptionally in Q2 (partly from chemicals/pharma), with moderate growth expected ahead. Unemployment ticked up slightly; capacity utilisation remains below average.
Why it matters
The SNB's hold signals confidence that current monetary accommodation is sufficient to manage near-term energy-driven inflation without triggering persistent medium-term price pressures. The upward revision to the inflation forecast (vs. June) reflects both higher oil prices and Swiss franc weakness, but the SNB judges these transitory. Maintaining 0% while global peers (ECB, Fed) have tightened underscores SNB's assessment that Swiss inflation dynamics and growth remain subdued relative to peers, reducing near-term rate-hike pressure.
Market transmission
First-order: energy-price pass-through to headline CPI is temporary; franc depreciation supports export competitiveness and import costs but is partially offset by lower global growth risk. Second-order: if energy prices remain elevated or franc weakens further, import-price inflation could persist longer, potentially forcing SNB to recalibrate in 2027. Conversely, if global growth slows sharply (Middle East escalation, trade tensions), deflationary pressure could emerge, keeping rates at zero longer. CHF weakness may support equity and credit markets near-term; sustained franc depreciation could eventually trigger SNB FX intervention.
What to watch
Q4 2026 inflation print (SNB expects further rise); oil-price trajectory and Middle East developments; ECB/Fed rate paths and their impact on CHF; Swiss unemployment and capacity-utilisation trends; any SNB FX-market intervention signals; 2027 inflation forecast revisions at next monetary-policy assessment (likely December 2026).
Source:Swiss National Bank — General press releases
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